Bush may have already won the election and we are just going through the motions. This isn't to say that Kerry has no chance, but the numbers are not in his favor. If there were more debates, however, and they were spaced closer to the election, that dynamic in itself could affect the election greatly. But, in reality, we are twenty days away from voting day, and the candidates are preparing for their last one-on-one meeting. It is democratically unfortunate, but that is how it works.

But let's look at the numbers.

States that Bush won (even before he was born and the GOP owns since the fall of the beloved Confederacy):

Alabama (9 electoral votes); Alaska (3); Georgia (15); Indiana (11); Idaho (4); Kansas (6); Kentucky (8); Mississippi (6); Montana (3); Nebraska (3); North Carolina (15); North Dakota (3); Oklahoma (7); South Carolina (6); South Dakota (3); Texas (34); Utah (5); and Wyoming (3).
Total electoral votes = 158.

Now Kerry also has the advantage of having states (and some big ones) in his corner (and have been since anyone can remember):

California (55); Connecticut (7); Delaware (3); District of Columbia (3); Hawaii (4); Illinois (21); Maryland (10); Massachusetts (12); New York (31); Rhode Island (4); and Vermont(3).
Total electoral votes = 153.

The rest of the states have been called "swing states" in elections past. However, a bunch aren't even in play this year.

Bush has a solid lead in the following states:

Arkansas (6); Colorado (9); Louisianna (9); Missouri (11); Nevada (5); Tennessee (11); Virginia (13); and West Virginia (5).
Total electoral votes = 69.

And there are those states that will always end up going for the democrat, in this case, Kerry:

Maine (4); Michigan (17); Minnesota (10); New Jersey (15); Oregon (7); and Washington (11).
Total electoral votes = 64.

Bush has 227 to Kerry's 217 electoral votes. That leaves seven states and 94 electoral votes (with 270 needed to win the presidency). But we can break those down as well.

Bush has a lead in and will take New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7), and New Hampshire (4) will disappoint the Northeast once again. Bush has the advantage of post-hurricane-hell in Florida (27) and before we know it... Bush has 270.

So Kerry must carry jobless-ridden Ohio (20) and Pennsylvania (21), and bring back democrat-stalwart Wisconsin (10) to bring his total to a grim 268. Bush does not have a huge margin for error though. Therefore, if Kerry can successfully pickoff New Hampshire, New Mexico, or Nevada or Colorado, Kerry will win. But that is not likely.

Labels: bush