I realize that my picks -- four Big East teams in the Final Four, six in the Elite Eight, with Georgetown winning it all -- are very unlikely to do well. But what are you going to do?
Upsets. I usually don't pick a lot of high-seed upsets.1 First, they rarely happen. Second, you may blindly miss out on an opportunity to pick a sleeper. My upsets come in the later rounds as the high seeds eventually fall. Either way...
In the opening round, I have (9) Purdue over (8) Arizona (I have a friend who doesn't consider 9-over-8 being an upset, but I did the math, and 9 is greater than 8); (10) Georgia Tech over (7) UNLV; (9) Villanova over (8) Kentucky; (10) Gonzaga over (7) Indiana; (11) George Washington over (6) Vanderbilt (my upset special); (10) Texas Tech over (7) Boston College; and (13) Albany over (4) Virginia (my lone high-seed upset).
In the second round, I have (5) Butler over (4) Maryland; (6) Notre Dame over (3) Oregon (I may have misjudged Oregon; and this is one that may come to bite me in the ass); (9) Villanova over (1) Kansas (a one-seed falls to the Big East; why not?); (5) Virginia Tech over (4) Southern Illinois (another uncomfortable pick); (8) Marquette over (1) North Carolina (another one-seed upset by the Big East? the gods are with us); and (6) Louisville over (3) Texas A&M (this is one I'd like to have back).
Sweet Sixteen, I have (6) Notre Dame over (2) Wisconsin (always pick against a Big Ten team); (9) Villanova over (5) Virginia Tech (this Big East thing is beginning to snowball); (3) Pitt over (1) UCLA; (8) Marquette over (4) Texas (I know what you're thinking); and (6) Louisville over (2) Memphis (an in-state slugfest).
Elite Eight, I have (6) Notre Dame over (1) Florida (the reigning champs fall); and (6) Louisville over (1) Ohio State (no one-seed reaches finals, which makes sense since no Big East team was a one-seed).
Seeds. An easy way to survey a bracket's risk factor is to look at the seeds in the Elite Eight. Mine: two 1s, one 2, one 3, two 6s, one 8 and one 9. Risky enough? How about my Final Four (one 2, one 3 and two 6s)?
Final Four. (3) Pitt over (6) Notre Dame, and (2) Georgetown over (6) Louisville; Georgetown defeats Pitt for national title, 64-59.
And that is the way it will happen.
1 A high-seed upset is defined by a loss of a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed.
Labels: ncaa
