I do not share the enthusiasm of Talking Points Memo, however, that this seat will somehow become a "swing state" in this coming election. The issue is not necessarily voter sentiment, rather the availability of a name to run for the democrats. The Buffalo suburbs are a longtime stronghold for republicans. Although, if there were any election to change that dynamic, this would be the one.
* The seat held by Jack Kemp no longer exists due to redistricting and census, however the geographical area is similar.
