I think Pennsylvania is a long-gone conclusion, even before Barack Obama made his gaffe, and Hillary Clinton will take the state, somewhat easily. I don't think anyone would object to this projection. But what does this mean for the race?

A big win in Pennsylvania may suggest that Obama -- given six weeks to campaign -- could not pull off a victory in a key battleground state, one that is vital for democratic hopes in the coming 2008 election. It will also allow the Clinton campaign to continue its somewhat accurate allegation that Obama cannot win the big states -- Texas, California, New York, Pennsylvania (and Florida and Michigan) -- which would only spell problems for a democrat in the general.

In light of this, the goal for the Obama campaign (and we will probably see this strategy in action shortly) is to lower expectations for the state, and at the same time, hit the urban areas and college campuses hard. In doing so, Obama will likely lose the primary (as widely expected), but not by such a degree that the Obama campaign cannot spin it as the "rough part of the campaign is over, we survived and did better than expected, and we are moving on."

Even with a big win (but especially with a small win) for the Clinton campaign, Obama will still retain control of the most delegates, and will still be on pace to have the lead in delegates heading into the convention. It is vitally important, however, that Obama doesn't get off-track, lose big in Pennsylvania, and allow that to snowball into momentum for Clinton in the primaries ahead.

Labels: 2008