Prediction of Election Naught-Four
30-Jun-04
It is June 30 and you know what that means... time to predict how this election will end up. First of all, we all know who is going to decide this election, as we have heard this over and over again, and that is the "undecided" voters. Who are these "undecided" voters? I'm not one. Neither are you (as people who read political blogs usually do have an opinion). So who are they?
Let's break down the current race as it stands now: 40% are for Kerry, 40% for Bush, and 20% are in the middle. But of that 20%, 5% are leaning towards Kerry and 5% are leaning towards Bush. So we are down to the final 10% - these are those lovable "undecided" voters. (You never know what they will do!)
This is also why you see every poll showing roughly 45% for Kerry and 45% for Bush with 8-10% undecided, and if either Bush or Kerry do hold a slim lead, it is within the margin of error. It will be this way until after the debates, and possibly up to election day.
But where are these "undecided" folks? Let's face it, they are scattered all across America, from Maine to Nebraska to Oregon and Alaska. The only ones that will make a difference, however, in the election are those who reside in the "battleground" states. (Don't you just love these terms?)
Ohio voters, Michigan voters, and voters in Pennsylvania and Florida will make the decision as to who the next president will be. And the undecided voters residing in those four states will be the ones tipping the scales, which amount to roughly 3-5% of the entire population. (Democracy at it's finest.)
But let's face it - undecided voters don't do much of anything. They don't watch the news, they don't read the papers, and they certainly don't research issues or candidates. They wait for someone to come to them or something to happen to them. If they lose their job, their pet gets sick, the gas prices rise, their tree gets cut down by a neighbor - these are the issues that fuel the undecided. If none of these happen though, undecideds tend toward the incumbent. That is why, with Rudy Guiliani as his running mate, George W. Bush will win re-election this November, and the downward spiral that is this nation's policies will continue. So it goes...
