2008 Is Like 1928 All Over Again
Posted at 4:06 pm on Thursday, November 16, 2006, in Uncategorized, and tagged 2008, bush.
I’m not trying to hype the 2008 presidential election yet (because it is way too early, and election season drags on forever, so we will have plenty of time; trust me), but the 2008 election will be truly different. In fact, it is an election of a sort that I have never seen. Or my older brother or sister. Or any of my elder cousins. Two whole generations have gone by without a presidential election like the one we are looking forward to in November 2008.
Why all the fuss? The 2008 presidential election will be the first time since 1952 where there isn’t an incumbent president or vice-president running. (Note: This is assuming that Cheney does not run, which is conventional wisdom.)
Since then, the following elections have occured…
2004: Bush (incumbent) vs. Kerry
2000: Gore (VP incumbent) vs. Bush
1996: Clinton (incumbent) vs. Dole
1992: Bush (incumbent) vs. Clinton
1988: Bush (VP incumbent) vs. Dukakis
1984: Reagan (incumbent) vs. Mondale
1980: Carter (incumbent) vs. Reagan
1976: Ford (incumbent) vs. Carter
1972: Nixon (incumbent) vs. McGovern
1968 is special. The sitting president, Lyndon B. Johnson, was allowed to run for re-election but decided not to, but his sitting vice-president did. (Same thing happened in 1952 with Harry Truman, except his VP opted not to run either.)
So, we continue…
1968: Humphrey (VP incumbent) vs. Nixon
1964: Johnson (incumbent) vs. Goldwater
1960: Nixon (VP incumbent) vs. Kennedy
1956: Eisenhower (incumbent) vs. Stevenson
1952: Stevenson vs. Eisenhower (incumbent opted not to run)
That’s nice, but let’s keep going…
1948: Truman (incumbent) vs. Dewey
1944: Roosevelt (incumbent) vs. Dewey
1940: Roosevelt (incumbent) vs. Willkie
1936: Roosevelt (incumbent) vs. Landon
1932: Hoover (incumbent) vs. Roosevelt
It gets hazy going farther back because the 22nd amendment (which limits the president to two 4-year terms, or a maximum of 10 years if he/she assumes the position as a vice-president) was passed while Truman was in office. (Truman, however, was grandfathered and could have run.) Until then, however, a president could have been elected over-and-over (case-in-point: FDR), but typically chose to retire following two terms. As a result, the rules have changed and it is hard to compare, but let us just stop with the 1928 election, where Coolidge effectively retired and did not seek his party’s nomination, unlike Truman…
1928: Hoover vs. Smith (incumbent opted not to run)
In conclusion, only twice in the last twenty (20) presidential elections has an incumbent president or vice-president not run. (By “run,” I mean win his or her party’s nomination.) Also…
- 2008 will be the first time since 1952 where an incumbent president or vice-president has chosen not to run; and
- 2008 will be the first time since 1928 where an incumbent president or vice-president has not sought the party’s nomination.
When people say 2008 will be historic, this is why.
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