Iowa Thoughts
Posted at 9:30 am on Friday, January 4, 2008, in Uncategorized, and tagged 2008.
This is why I was so wrong with the Iowa caucus… I wholly underestimated the youth vote. Every four years, the youth vote has failed to turn out when it was expected to “be the year” for the untapped youth vote. In 2000, it was not the seniors that failed Gore in Florida, but the thousands of young voters who did not take part in democracy. The same in 2004. I did not foresee the Iowa youth sticking it out through the torture of the democratic caucus process to vote for their candidate. The Obama campaign deserves high marks in making that happen.
The GOP establishment is not excited about the Huckabee surge, that is clear. The evidence: Mike Allen on Fox News declaring McCain’s fourth place finish in Iowa as the big winner of the night. Romney’s star has apparently fallen, and Giuliani gives the evangelicals fits at night. McCain is the last one to take on Huckabee.
What does this mean for the candidates…
- Dodd and Biden were forced to drop-out; everyone saw this coming.
- Obama’s win will bring increased scrutiny from the press; he has been given a free pass so far.
- A major stumbling block for Clinton could be turned around with a solid win in New Hampshire. Clinton’s national strategy, similar to Giuliani’s, may be in jeopardy if she cannot hold her own in the early states, especially if Obama runs the table.
- Edwards is counting on South Carolina, and I think he needs to run against Clinton, more so than against Obama, to have a real shot for the nomination. I think he needs Obama to falter sometime soon.
- Richardson will step down soon, but not before he can successfully endorse the eventual winner, securing a role in the coming administration, possibly as vice-president. That will probably come after Super Tuesday.
- Giuliani didn’t try in Iowa, but that is not an excuse. If he can make it through to Super Tuesday, he may be fine.
- Thompson will need to drop-out if his poll numbers remain low in South Carolina.
- Huckabee is a force to be reckoned with, evidence that the evangelicals still control the GOP.
- If Romney loses New Hampshire, he may be able to afford the money to continue, but he’ll certainly wipe-out any chance of 2012 in the process. No one likes a big loser.
- McCain needs New Hampshire. If Giuliani struggles, McCain gets the Giuliani voters, which will be big come Super Tuesday.
Closing note… if Huckabee is the GOP candidate, than I am more than excited with Barack Obama as the democratic candidate. Even Hillary Clinton. Obama spoke very well last night, and I hope the increased scrutiny, as well as the long campaign ahead, do not detract from his positives. I do wish, however, that Obama would take more definitive stands on policy, and not rely so much on rhetoric, but I do understand that that is not necessarily what wins you primaries. First you must make it to the show, and Obama has taken the first step in doing so.
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January 4th, 2008 at 10:23 am
just say it dude……jimbo was right about obama. yah.. i’m the man!
did you see his speech last night!!!
AMAZING.
go to his website and jump on the ship ready to sail!!!