Overanalyzing Iowa

Posted at 1:08 pm on Friday, January 4, 2008, in Uncategorized, and tagged 2008.

There is nothing like caucus results to get your juices flowing.

The official Iowa results are in bold, and my predictions are in parentheses…

Democratic (100% reporting)
Obama 38% (26)
Edwards 30% (32)
Clinton 29% (25)
Richardson 2% (7)
Others 1% (10)

Analysis: Aside from undervaluing the youth vote Obama turned out, there was a great amount of front-running — or band-wagoning — going on, as well as a large effect from the 15% viability threshold, which pushed the three major players higher, and basically eviscerated all support from the lower-end players (Dodd, Biden, et al.).

Republican (95% reporting)
Huckabee 34% (31)
Romney 25% (33)
Thompson 13% (7)
McCain 13% (14)
Paul 10% (9)
Others 5% (6)

Analysis: I underestimated the evangelical presence and their full support of Huckabee, as well as the train-wreck that is the Romney campaign. I am still surprised that so many Iowans could throw support behind the lackluster Thompson campaign.

Over/Under
Romney/Obama 63 (60)
Romney/Clinton 54 (60)
Romney/Edwards 55 (55)
Huckabee/Obama 72 (50)
Huckabee/Clinton 63 (65)
Huckabee/Edwards 64 (60)
Others/Others 7 (12)

Analysis: I’d say I did pretty well here, besides the Huckabee/Obama line. I would have lost the house on that one; the original line should have been 65. I must have been thinking general election with that 50.

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