reyonthehill

Unless something absolutely insane* takes place at the upcoming Democratic convention in Denver later this month -- and good news, reyonthehill will be there to cover the festivities, complete with nutso regalia -- Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president, the first minority to be positioned for the nation's top job (from any party) in history.

John McCain has wisely asked that Obama choose his running mate first, and that is certainly an appropriate request, since McCain's party is incumbent, and I am sure Obama will oblige. Obama's pick, moreover, will greatly influence McCain's pick, especially if Obama chooses a woman (which he will not do, in my opinion).

John McCain does not want to run with a woman, since a woman will probably not help him pick-up enough of the voters he needs, and will only do so if necessary, i.e., if Obama chooses a female running mate. If that is the case, McCain may cancel out the effects of Obama's redoubled efforts to court women voters (presumably middle-class, independent-minded suburbanites) by nominating a woman as well. So, as the women VP candidates will travel the country looking to secure up every last undecided vote, McCain would be concentrate on attacking Obama by himself, on the stump and in the debates.

I do not see Obama picking a woman, however, be it Sebelius or whomever (and certainly not Clinton). Obama will end up playing it very safe with Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine (and try to steal one of those states in the process; Indiana or Virginia, respectively). Following such, McCain will play it safe as well, likely Pawlenty to keep Minnesota and Wisconsin in his corner.

Either way, McCain isn't looking to run with a woman, and will only do so if Obama chooses one. So, come a few weeks from now, when Obama finally announces his running mate ahead of the convention, we will know whether our next vice-president will be a woman or not. If Obama chooses a woman, then we have a certainty, since his opponent in the election will be forced to match gender.

* And by "insane," I mean Hillary Clinton's supporters staging a mutiny and vaulting the New York senator into the nomination.